Kalamazoo Times

A decline in both jobless claims and the spread of COVID-19 was good news for Michigan, according to Brian Peterson, director of public policy and economic analysis at the Anderson Economic Group.

Anderson said jobless claims dropped from 18,800 to 13,300, as of the weekend of Sept. 5, on WJR's "The Paul W. Smith Show."

“We also saw in July the unemployment rate in Michigan down to 8.7%. So by all means, this is a good direction for the state to be moving in,” Peterson said on the show.

Brian Peterson, Director | Anderson Economic Group

Peterson said in this economy, everyone will keep their eyes on, not just the presidential election, but also the pandemic to make sure the modeling shows we’re continuing to slow the spread of COVID-19.

Anderson Economic Group’s modeling shows that after a volatile March, April and May, Michigan did see a second wave of infections.

“But it looks, by all means, that the state is on a downward trend, in terms of new daily infections, which is only good news for the economy,” Peterson told Smith.

Nationally the employment numbers are looking good, he said, though things slowed down a bit in the last month on initial claims with no change at the national level. Peterson said some concern exists for those people in the gig economy who are receiving pandemic unemployment assistance (PUA).

“Those are folks that are not traditionally considered employed,” Peterson said on the show. “So those might be, you know, self-practicing lawyers, individuals who aren't part of a corporate business. So that could be an Uber driver, other gig economy workers.”

On a national level, PUA claims increased consistently for the previous three weeks.

“However, it should be noted that in Michigan, PUA claims are also down over the last week,” Peterson told Smith.

Peterson agreed with the host that all the assistance handed out will have to be paid back somehow, whether it was loans or unemployment assistance. President Donald Trump issued an executive order that required states requesting additional unemployment assistance to 'have some skin in the game." Policymakers will have to think long and hard about those decisions.

“As you mentioned, you know, this isn't free money. We don't have an unlimited printing press,” Peterson said on the show. “And at some point, businesses are going to have to pay pay back some of these unemployment benefits that have been doled out.”